Has Lula turned the polls around?

Lula at an October 10 election rally -- Lula Oficial, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

By Urariano Mota

On Saturday, October 17, I got into a serious argument that escalated into a physical fight—even though I don’t know how to fight and have never taken boxing lessons. My ideal boxer is Marx.

The incident took place around 5:00 p.m. at Bar do Peneira, in the Quatro Cantos neighborhood of Olinda. I’d like to note in passing that Bar do Peneira is a peaceful place, always full of progressive people. However, when I asked for the check and approached the counter, someone at a nearby table asked me:

- What do you think of the polls?

He asked me that, no doubt, because I was wearing a red shirt with a sticker that read “Lula 13.” So I replied, moderately:

- For now, they’re showing a tie.

Then another guy at the table—a bearded, burly guy who looked like Bud Spencer—spoke up:

- It’s going to be a close race. But Bolsonaro will win!

Surprised, I replied:

- Look, it’s still too early to say that.

And “Bud Spencer”:

- I know a thing or two about polls. Bolsonaro’s going to win!

- But...

Then Bud stood up, shouting:

- I have a Ph.D. in Statistics! I have a doctorate in Statistics! I don't argue with ignorant people!

To which I replied, amid his shouting:

- There is a political reality that transcends the numbers!

That’s how I responded, based on the lessons from the boxer Marx and because I understand a little about numbers—I’ve studied math. I repeated amid the noise:

- Political reality overcomes statistics.

But the guy was yelling at my Marxist fighting move, and was coming right at me. Then the waiter—whom I call Ciro, a nickname he’s also given me—grabbed me by the arm and led me to the door:

- Ciro, forget it. Just ignore those Bolsonaro supporters.

But now—though I don’t know if this will last, because the only thing that’s permanent is change—here’s the result: “Lula has 51% of the valid votes compared to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 49%, according to a Vox Brasil poll.”

Lula has taken the lead.

Urariano Mota is a Brazilian writer and journalist, born in Recife on September 29, 1950. He is the author of novels about the horrors of the Brazilian dictatorship, such as “Soledad no Recife” and “Never-Ending Youth”