Crucial Hours in Venezuela and Across the Continent

Venezuelans march in Caracas demanding the release of Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores, January 9 -- image via X

By Manuel Bertoldi

10 Points for debate and political orientation of the popular forces of Our America

One. The recent military aggression by the United States and the kidnapping of President Nicolás Maduro constitute the most serious and explicit attack that US imperialism has carried out in the entire history of the Venezuelan nation. At the same time, they represent the most profound imperial offensive against the sovereign projects of our region so far in the 21st century and a breach of international law established since 1945 after World War II.

In his own public statements, Donald Trump made it clear that the central objective of this operation is to regain direct control of Venezuela’s oil reserves, the largest in the world. From a political-strategic point of view, the operation puts the historic Monroe Doctrine back at the center of the agenda: US Department of Security documents openly affirm the need to regain control over the strategic natural resources of all of Our America.

Two. Until now, a frontal and massive landing of US troops on Venezuelan territory was unfeasible due to the widespread mobilization and organization of the Venezuelan people, as well as their concrete capacity for confrontation (with at least eight million citizens armed in defense of the Bolivarian process). Added to this was the fact that the international community would have been unlikely to tolerate an open ground occupation, in a global context already convulsed by Israel’s bombing of Gaza and growing global rejection of war.

Three. An important element to consider is the internal politics of the United States, where Trump does not have the necessary correlation of forces in favor of a large-scale military intervention, even within the MAGA movement. Even ‘Operation Absolute Resolve’ produced signs of destabilization in the internal political scene, the impact of which remains to be seen in the upcoming midterm elections in November of this year. Trump’s popularity is on the decline with electoral defeats in New York, Virginia, and New Jersey. In recent months, he has seen a historic drop in popularity in the agricultural sector and has been unable to resolve the overall inflation problem. Not only did the mayor of New York and sectors of the Democratic Party speak out openly against the intervention, but within the Republican Party itself, various voices questioned Trump’s actions.

Four. The military operation carried out by the United States had a large-scale logistical structure: around 150 aircraft, the deployment of warships strategically located in the Caribbean with missile strike capability, and the intervention of elite units such as the Delta Force. It was a meticulously planned operation, which included rehearsals on a full-scale model on US territory, as well as prior infiltration by the CIA in Venezuela.

During the operation, there was an open military confrontation in which the United States killed around 100 combatants—32 of them Cuban nationals—and, prior to that, selective attacks had been carried out against key military installations for the country’s defense. These bombings also resulted in civilian and military casualties, the total number of which has not yet been quantified. Media operations seeking to promote the idea of an intervention without resistance and the surrender of the head of state deliberately downplay these facts and omit the structural reality: today, the United States is the leading military power on the planet, with overwhelming technological superiority over any country in our region.

Five. The current strategy of the United States continues along the same lines it has been pursuing since the death of Hugo Chávez: to break the Bolivarian political process from within and, in particular, to destroy the civil-military alliance that sustains it. The current escalation has, for the moment, succeeded in decapitating the political leadership through the kidnapping of President Nicolás Maduro. However, the press conference led by Delcy Rodríguez—currently responsible for political leadership—along with Diosdado Cabello, Vladimir Padrino López, ministers, and high-ranking officials of the Bolivarian National Armed Force, clearly showed the continued strength of the civil-military unity and the effective control of the state apparatus by the forces of Chavismo.

Six. At the same time, a psychological and media operation has been launched to present Delcy Rodríguez as a figure of ‘transition’ and the supposed guarantor of US interests in the country. This strategy seeks, on the one hand, to fracture the Bolivarian political force internally and, on the other, to pressure Chavismo to yield to imperialist demands.

In light of this scenario, two key elements must be taken into account. First, the proven track record of loyalty to the Bolivarian revolution of the Rodríguez family and the group of political cadres who currently lead the political-military process. Second, the need to reopen channels of international dialogue, in a context in which the United States had unilaterally broken off such channels and in which, at the global level, revolutionary and socialist perspectives are undergoing a period of decline. Analysis of this moment requires a very fine balance: sustaining Venezuela’s sovereignty and independence while preserving the continuity of the Bolivarian political process in the face of imperial aggression.

Seven. The global context is a key element in understanding the current situation. Analyses that assume a rigid division of the world in which Russia and China would limit themselves to public statements in response to events in our region must be dismissed out of hand. First, open military intervention by these powers would, in a matter of seconds, put us on the brink of a global nuclear war. But it is also necessary to look at what their political orientations have actually been in recent years. Neither China nor Russia has promoted a policy of blocs based on a tripartite ‘division of the world.’ Instead, they have promoted material ties—technological, energy, and military—with various countries in Our America. On the economic front, they consolidated the BRICS space and advanced trade schemes in currencies other than the dollar, including agreements with Venezuela. Both powers, in turn, spoke out clearly and forcefully in favor of the release of Nicolás Maduro and his return to Venezuelan territory.

Eight. In our region, Brazil, Mexico, Uruguay, and Chile took clear positions, upholding the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of states and condemning the United States’ military aggression against Venezuela. However, these statements have a substantive weakness: the common denominator has been the omission of the kidnapping of constitutional President Nicolás Maduro and First Combatant Cilia Flores. This is due to the convergence of two factors. On the one hand, there is a cautious calculation in the face of the volatility, unpredictable behavior, and tendency to act with impunity of the US president, who has repeatedly demonstrated his contempt for international law and even for the internal constitutional limits of his own country. On the other hand, there is domestic political weakness associated with the ‘Maduro burden.’ In countries such as Colombia and Brazil, with elections on the horizon, there is a prevailing difficulty in being challenged by an opposition and media that have spent years building a deeply negative image of Bolivarian leadership.

Nine. In this context, it is essential to continue building broad, unified perspectives with a real capacity for mobilization in each of our countries and in the Global South as a whole. An eventual defeat or collapse of the Bolivarian Revolution would mean a historic setback of enormous magnitude for popular aspirations and for the processes of breaking with the hegemonic order, the effects of which could be measured in decades. It is necessary to vigorously challenge the narratives produced by the United States and the major global media outlets. This challenge must be expressed both in terms of political and cultural communication and in concrete intervention in national and international institutional spaces. At the same time, we must anticipate and recreate innovative forms of political action and militant organization capable of sustaining high levels of mobilization and social commitment. At the center of any common strategy must be a clear and unwavering demand: the immediate release of Nicolás Maduro and his reinstatement in Venezuela as the supreme leader of the revolutionary process.

Ten. The hours we are going through are decisive and historic for the peoples of our continent and the world. The popular forces cannot hesitate. It is necessary to call for mobilization and take a leading position in the defense of the Bolivarian Revolution, the sovereignty of Venezuela, and the freedom of Nicolás Maduro. We must understand that the scenario remains open. In Venezuela, Chavismo maintains political and military control of the state. On the continent, there are political processes of enormous importance—such as those in Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia—that need to be consolidated, continue in government, and project themselves into the future. At the same time, the United States has openly stated its intention to intervene in Colombia and Cuba, confirming that this is a broader offensive against the entire region.

In response to this, the strategic task is to advance in the broadest unity in defense of sovereignty, the self-determination of peoples, and the continuity of the emancipatory project of Our America. The Mothers of Plaza de Mayo taught us, the peoples of the world, that even in the hardest times, we must never give up or succumb to demoralization.

Their example of dignity, organization, and perseverance shows that truth and justice can only be achieved through conscious unity and the sustained struggle of the peoples. Today, in the face of this new imperial aggression, we take up that legacy. With popular organization, political determination, and the broadest unity, we will defend the sovereignty of Venezuela and Our America. Because we are deeply convinced that collective struggle is the only path that will make our victory possible.

Manuel Bertoldi is the leader of the Frente Patria y Futuro (Argentina) and one of the leaders of Alba Movimientos. He is the coordinator of the International Peoples’ Assembly.

This article was produced by Globetrotter.